The $300 billion GMV milestone is more than a number; it also represents fundamental changes in consumer behaviour, business models, and technology investments.
The Southeast Asian digital ecosystem is one of the most vibrant and fastest-moving economic fronts in the world today. Over the past decade, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has undergone a remarkable level of digital evolution, driven by the grow of the internet economy, the increasing adoption of mobile technology, and a young and digitally born-and-raised generation. As the world of business, governments, investors, and consumers becomes ever more inextricably linked to digital platforms, the burning question on every strategic horizon is whether ASEAN can realistically hope to reach the $1 trillion gross merchandise value (GMV) mark by the year 2030. The path thus far indicates that it is certainly possible – but by no means assured.
The digital economy in Southeast Asia has experienced rapid expansion over the last decade. According to the 2025 version of the ‘e-Conomy’ SEA report published by Google, Temasek, and Bain & Company, the digital economy in Southeast Asia is expected to surpass $300 billion in GMV by 2025 alone, registering a 7.4-fold increase and an 11.2-fold increase in revenue over a period of ten years. This is based on a premise of mass digital adoption, with three in five individuals in Southeast Asia having adopted online shopping, and over 60% of all payments being digital.
The $300 billion GMV milestone is more than a number; it also represents fundamental changes in consumer behaviour, business models, and technology investments. For example, e-commerce is on the cusp of further growth with GMV and revenue contributions of $185 billion and $41 billion, respectively, by 2025, driven by video commerce and social commerce innovations that turn user engagement into transactions with minimal friction. Other industries, such as food delivery, ride-hailing, travel, and digital financial services, are also growing substantially, and this is indicative of the diversity of the digital economy.
However, if the region is to grow from $300 billion in 2025 to $1 trillion in 2030, the pace of growth must accelerate even further. On the basis of the findings of the HSBC report “Digital Frontiers 2030,” the total digital economy in Southeast Asia, including not only e-commerce but the overall adoption of technology, has the potential to grow to $1 trillion by 2030, with the possibility of expanding to $2 trillion if the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement is successfully implemented. The framework is intended to help harmonise digital regulations, improve cross-border digital trade, and promote data-driven growth among member states, all of which are exactly what is needed in terms of structural scaffolding to support such robust growth.
The ingredients for crossing the $1 trillion threshold are already in place. Firstly, the demographics in the region are very conducive. ASEAN has a population of more than 680 million people, many of whom are young, urban, and mobile-first consumers who are eager for digital services. This demographic advantage is a huge element that will continue to drive the success of industries such as e-commerce, digital entertainment, and mobile payments, among others.
Secondly, investment and innovation have driven new capabilities throughout the digital ecosystem. Although private investment occasionally falls behind international peers – with recent figures indicating $7.7 billion of digital economy investment over the 12 months to mid-2025, although this is still below pre-pandemic levels – the emphasis is now on targeted areas such as artificial intelligence, cloud infrastructure, and data centres. Collaborations between global technology leaders and local platforms, such as the partnership between Google and Sea Ltd. on AI solutions for e-commerce, illustrate the growing technological complexity in the region.
Thirdly, the policy environment within ASEAN is gradually being shaped to enable digital integration. The efforts that have been put towards ensuring that there is standardisation, as well as the promotion of the free flow of data across borders, all help to ensure that the ecosystem is favourable for the kind of trade that can only be facilitated on a regional level.
However, there are still many challenges to be overcome. To reach $1 trillion GMV by 2030, it is not only necessary to build on the existing digital platforms but also to overcome the structural challenges. One of the biggest challenges is the lack of digital skills in the region, which has been pointed out by ASEAN’s own Digital Integration Index. If there is not a strong supply of technically skilled people, it might be difficult to innovate, and the benefits of digitalisation might not be evenly distributed.
Financial inclusion and access to capital are also hurdles, especially for early-stage startups and small to medium enterprises (SMEs). Although late-stage investments have increased, early-stage investments have been lower, thereby narrowing down the list of startups that could potentially be leaders in the digital space. Infrastructural challenges, especially in rural and less developed ASEAN countries, also impact the potential market size and adoption rate in the non-urban areas. These challenges would need to be overcome for the digital growth story to be strong and inclusive.
However, despite these challenges, hope for a bright digital future for ASEAN is well justified. Looking back at past performance, there is remarkable resilience in the face of global shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which proves that the digital economy in the region is capable of adapting and thriving despite the challenges. Furthermore, changes in consumer behaviour, the adoption of technology, and alignment between the private and public sectors indicate that the ecosystem is ready for rapid transformation.
ASEAN’s vision to achieve $1 trillion in GMV by 2030 is a bold and achievable vision. This vision will not be achieved through incremental progress. Rather, this vision will require fast-paced innovation, greater integration, more inclusive policy, and a commitment to close the digital divide within ASEAN member nations. If ASEAN heeds the call of its demographic strengths, its global partnerships, and its attention to the structural barriers that still exist, it can not only achieve the vision of $1 trillion but can also surpass it and establish itself as a global digital leader by the end of the decade.
