The Asia-Pacific region – particularly China and India – is expected to provide the “largest market for new aircraft”.
According to Airbus, there will be a major increase in air travel from the Asia-Pacific region over the next 20 years as economies grow and the world recovers from the pandemic-induced depression.
As per the European aircraft manufacturer’s annual report released on Monday, air traffic is expected to rise by over 8% yearly until 2027 as the sector swiftly recovers from losses associated with COVID-19. After that, it will stabilise at a growth rate of 3.6% annually until 2043.
By 2043, there will be 48,230 aircraft worldwide, according to Airbus, up from 24,240 at the start of the year. According to the aircraft manufacturer, about 45% of all new deliveries will be used to replace older, less fuel-efficient aircraft.
Through the longest and most severe crisis in aviation history over the past four years, the industry has once again demonstrated its resilience. With a few notable exceptions, traffic and airline operations have now largely returned to pre-COVID levels or higher, according to Airbus.
The increase in the global GDP, which is predicted to rise by more than 2.6% between 2023 and 2043, will propel growth.
According to Airbus’ analysis, other reasons contributing to the expansion of air traffic include growing populations, an increase in middle-class, first-time travellers, increased trade, enhanced infrastructure, and traffic simulation from airlines introducing new, inexpensive routes.
The announcement coincides with the anticipated certification of the company’s long-distance A321XLR in the upcoming weeks.
According to Bob Lange, head of market analysis and predictions at Airbus, “we see particularly strong growth in Asia and the Middle East, led particularly by India and China,” as cited by Reuters.
Where does the growth originate from?
The new aircraft will consist of 8,920 wide-bodies and 33,510 single-aisle aircraft, as well as passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats and freighters with a payload capacity of more than 10 tons.
The Toulouse, France-based Airbus stated in its research that the Asia-Pacific and China markets account for more than 45% of the demand (19,510).
China will need around 23.1% (9,520) of the new aircraft, while Asia-Pacific (without China) would need about 23.2% (9,990).
Europe and the CIS (8,050), North America (7,100), Latin America (2,570), the Middle East (3,740), and Africa (1,460) will come after this.
According to Linus Bauer, the founder and managing director of consultants BAA & Partners, the Asia-Pacific region – particularly China and India – is expected to provide the “largest market for new aircraft,” propelled by a huge amount of unmet demand for air travel and economic growth.
He clarified that the growing middle class and rising urbanisation in the area are the main causes of this demand.
Mr Bauer further went on to explain that many countries in the region – especially in South East Asia right now – are investing heavily in expanding their aviation infrastructure to meet the rising demand, and Asia-Pacific is set to experience robust growth.
Middle Eastern airlines, especially those in Saudi Arabia, are anticipated to be among the largest purchasers. Airlines in North America and Europe will also be big purchasers, Mr Bauer added, mostly due to the requirement to swap out outdated, fuel-efficient aircraft with more modern, environmentally friendly models.
The Airbus investigation revealed that a number of the most popular unserved routes are centered in urban areas including Lagos, Cape Town, Nairobi, Dakar, and Douala.
A Focus on Fuel Economy
In the upcoming years, older, less fuel-efficient aircraft will be replaced by new ones, according to Airbus.
Presently, approximately thirty per cent of the global aircraft fleet in operation belong to the most recent generation, with the remainder being older models.
“Short-term priority for decarbonizing the sector includes to replace the remaining 70 per cent,” Airbus said.
Along with helping to achieve efficiency gains and sustainability targets, the new aircraft will further lower fuel burn per revenue passenger kilometer (RPK), which has already decreased by half since 1990.
RPK, or the number of kilometers flown by paying passengers, is one of the primary metrics used in the aviation sector to gauge the volume of passenger traffic.
According to Airbus, part of its decarbonization strategy involved implementing more fuel-efficient aircraft operations, employing Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) and cutting-edge technologies like hydrogen and carbon-capture methods.
As per the firm, replacing the fleet could result in carbon dioxide reductions of roughly 25% for the whole Airbus fleet.
Alternative fuels, or SAFs, derived from renewable resources are essential for the aviation sector to meet its 2050 net-zero target. The aviation industry contributes around 2% of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions.
Due to its higher cost compared to conventional gasoline and its small-scale production, its adoption is still in its early stages.
Up to 50% SAF mixes are suitable with all Airbus aircraft; no modifications are needed. The corporations stated in the study that by the end of the decade, up to 100% capability is the goal. By 2035, it also hopes to introduce a hydrogen-powered aircraft to the market.